Sunday NFL Gridbits – Week 9


Matt Fargo takes a brief look at each game this Sunday and offers some thoughts and trends.


This is Cincinnati’s last game before their bye week. The Bengals sit atop the AFC North thanks to an easy schedule in which all six of their wins have come against teams that now have a combined 12-31 record. They get the Colts in two weeks. Trendsetter: CINCINNATI is 6-0 Over after 1 or more straight losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

The Ravens are coming off a one-point loss on Monday. This is the second of four division games in a five-game stretch, all against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The offense scored the most points this season against the Steelers on Monday. Trendsetter: BALTIMORE is 9-1 Over in home games in the second half of the season for the past 3 seasons.


Tennessee has lost three straight and the defense has allowed 31 or more points in five of its eight games. The Titans have a bye next week and then will play four of their next five games at home. Trendsetter: TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS against conference opponents the past 2 seasons.

Cleveland has also lost three straight and allowed the Texans their first win of the season last Sunday. The offense has scored 16 points or fewer in five of its seven games, while the defense has allowed 19 or fewer in five straight games. Trendsetter: CLEVELAND is 10-2 under in games where the line is +3 to -3 in the last 3 seasons.


Houston finally got into the win column last Sunday, but it could be the only one for a while, as its next three games are against teams with a winning record. The Texans’ defense tied a season low by allowing only 16 points against the Browns. Trendsetter: HOUSTON is 12-2 ATS after losing 5 of its last 6 games in the last 3 seasons.

Jacksonville allowed 20-plus points for the first time last week at St. Louis and it was their first loss of the season as the offense scored in the 20s. The Jaguars host the Ravens next week before embarking on a three-game road trip. Trendsetter: JACKSONVILLE is 13-2 under after giving up 175 or more rushing yards in the last game since 1992.


The Raiders won for the first time on the road last week at Tennessee and have now won three of their last four games to move a game under .500. This is the second game in a streak of five in seven away games after playing three games in a row at home. Trendmaker: OAKLAND is 4-16 ATS in road games after covering the deficit in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1992.

The Chiefs have two straight away games and follow this game with two more on the road before finishing the season four of six at home. The loss in San Diego snapped a two-game winning streak and put them 1.5 games behind Denver. Trendsetter: KANSAS CITY is 19-8 ATS after giving up 300 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.


Atlanta didn’t have a bye week that was good for rest, but it snapped the momentum of a 4-1 winning streak. The Falcons are tied at three-way in the NFC South with two straight home games after this one, including a game with Tampa Bay. Trendsetter: ATLANTA is 2-11 ATS after playing a home game the past 2 seasons.

The Dolphins won for the first time on the road last Sunday at New Orleans and are now just one game behind the Patriots in the AFC East. Miami hosts New England next Sunday before participating in two straight non-division road games. Trendsetter: MIAMI is 10-1 after playing its last road game in the last 2 seasons.


The Lions suffered a tough home loss in overtime last week against the Bears, who took first place in the NFC North. Detroit has allowed 21 points or fewer in five straight, but the offense has scored 20 or fewer in four of those games. Trendsetter: DETROIT is 2-13 ATS as a favorite on the road with 7 points or fewer since 1992.

The Vikings’ season took a turn for the worse when Dante Culpepper sat out the rest of the season with a knee injury. Both of the Vikings’ wins have come against teams with a combined 3-12 record, but a win against Detroit could move them within a game of first place. Trendsetter: MINNESOTA is 18-5 ATS as a home underdog since 1992.


The Panthers have won four straight and both of their losses have come by just three points each. Carolina has played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far, but it gets tougher with six of its last nine games coming against teams with winning records. Trendsetter: CAROLINA is 8-1 in away games with a home win in the last 3 seasons.

Tampa Bay was caught looking to the future or just not that great of a team after its loss in San Francisco. Three of their next four games are at home before a brutal three-game road trip that begins in December. Defense still ranks first in the NFL. Trendsetter: TAMPA BAY is 13-2 ATS from an upset loss as a favorite on the road since 1992.


San Diego will be looking to get revenge on the Jets for last season’s overtime playoff loss. The Chargers have won four of their last six games and all four of their losses this season have been by four points or fewer. They have a goodbye next week. Trendsetter: SAN DIEGO is 10-1 ATS in away games the last 2 seasons.

The Jets haven’t played at home since an Oct. 9 win over Tampa Bay. The offense is faltering, having scored 17 points or fewer in six of its seven games this season. New York is 4-0 and is coming off a bye week with Herm Edwards. Trendsetter: NY JETS is 8-1 after being outscored for 75 or more yards in the last game for the past 3 seasons.


The Bears have won three straight and now stand alone in first place in the NFC North. The victory over Detroit last Sunday was the first away from home this season and was the first game in which the offense scored more than 10 points on the road. Trendsetter: CHICAGO is 14-2 under in road games against teams giving up 24 points per game or more since 1992.

New Orleans has lost four straight and six of its last seven. The defense allowed fewer than 28 points for the first time in four games and the Saints took a breather with the entrance of the offensively challenged Bears. New Orleans has a bye next week. Trendsetter: NEW ORLEANS is 10-23 ATS in home games after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 since 1992.


Seattle is coming off a bye week after winning three straight to take a 1.5-game lead in the NFC West. The Seahawks alternate home and away games for the rest of the season and six of the remaining nine games are against teams under .500. Trendsetter: SEATTLE is 8-0 Over when playing a team with a losing record in the last 2 seasons.

The Cardinals are three games behind the Seahawks and a loss here would likely end any chance at a division title. Arizona is 1-2 at home with both losses by five points or less and both falling in the last minute. Three of his next four are on tour. Trendsetter: ARIZONA is 8-1 in avenging a road loss against an opponent in the last 3 seasons.


New York took the lead in the NFC East with a blowout of the Redskins last week. This is a sandwich game after two home games with two more home games at stake. Tampa Bay was caught sleeping last week and the Giants need to avoid disappointment. Trendsetter: NY GIANTS are 0-9 ATS vs. poor offensive teams – average

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