Home (short) is where the heart is

So what do you think of the Golden State Warriors? Alright, so they’re a .500 team, nothing to get excited about. A closer look, however, finds that the young Warriors are 14-6 SU, 13-7 ATS at home, but a measly 4-13 SU, 7-10 ATS on the road. Not all teams go to this extreme, of course, but it’s essential to understand that the home/away breakdown is more important when examining basketball handicap.

This is also common in college hoops. It’s important to focus on where a basketball game is being played, especially when a college basketball conference is taking place. Spend some time reviewing the records, directly and against the spread, of your favorite college and professional teams and you’ll be surprised at some of the differences.

Some college teams will throw lights at home, averaging 78 points per game. However, the same players can become certified masons along the way with an average of 59 points per game. Several things are happening. For serious sports bettors, it’s important to identify these valuable facets of betting, apply meaning, and incorporate them to your downside.

The MAC’s Eastern Michigan currently has a 5-3 record at home where the defense allows 65 points per game. On the road though, the Broncos are a much different team at 1-4 SU, 0-4 ATS allowing 76 points per game! What the hell happens to his defense on the road? Basically, they leave it at home!

He’s not relegated to college hoops, either. Take a look at some of the home/road records of NBA teams over the years. One of the best examples I found was the Denver Nuggets in 2000-01. That season, the Nuggets were an average team with a 40-42 overall record. But going a step further, something remarkable takes shape: Denver had a winning margin record at home where they were 29-12 in a row, however a completely different team appeared on the road, where the Nuggets were 11-30 in a row and 16 -25 against the spread!

There are many reasons why this happens. One is pride, since the team wants to play everything to defend its territory. Another reason is the excitement, since the home fans will encourage their team to give 100%. This is why opposing managers are so quick to call a timeout when they see the home crowd going wild, wanting to curb that momentum before the game slips away.

Confidence and being comfortable are two other reasons. Home teams feel comfortable with the environment, the stadium, the lighting, etc. They practice and prepare every day in that same setting, so on the road things can change completely.

And experience is another factor to take into account. Professional handicappers take careful note of the rosters and identify which teams are over-young and which are experienced. The first example I gave, Golden State, has a roster full of young players. Veteran teams like the Spurs and Miami Heat may be less scared down the road since they have so many games under their belt. Keep in mind that Miami is 8-9 at home and 7-10 on the road, not much of a difference. A young team from the Washington Wizards? 14-3 at home, 6-11 away from home!

From a bettor’s perspective, this offers opportunities to “play in” a young team at home and “go against them” when traveling. I’m still waiting for my young Cleveland Cavaliers to turn that corner: The Cavs are sensational at home again (15-3), but a money-burning 7-10 SU, 6-11 ATS on the road. When a talented young team starts to win and cover on the road, it can be an excellent opportunity to start backing that group before the punters catch up. But until they turn that corner, be careful and look at the home/away stats VERY carefully.